年轻人为什么「换不动」手机了？

 Why don't young people want to change their mobile phones?

一则“中国智能手机4月份出货量同比下降34.4%”的数据，将眼下中国智能手机市场的惨淡放到了大众面前，年轻人对手机的消费热情下降最让手机厂商们头疼，换机周期从过去的一年半拉长到三年，甚至更久。年轻人为什么不愿意换手机了，是他们不想吗？

A "China's smartphone shipments in April dropped by 34.4% year-on-year" data has put the current dismal situation of China's smartphone market in front of the public. The decline in young people's enthusiasm for mobile phones is the biggest headache for mobile phone manufacturers. The replacement cycle has been extended from one and a half years in the past to three years, or even longer. Why don't young people want to change their mobile phones? Don't they?

Canalys数据显示，今年一季度，中国大陆智能手机市场的表现持续落后于全球市场，仅出货7560万台，同比下滑 18%。中国信通院的报告称，中国智能手机4月份出货量 1769万部，同比下降 34.4%。

Canalys data show that in the first quarter of this year, the performance of the smart phone market in Chinese Mainland continued to lag behind the global market, with only 75.6 million units shipped, a year-on-year decline of 18%. According to the report of the China Academy of communications and communications, China shipped 17.69 million smartphones in April, a year-on-year decrease of 34.4%.

 

年轻人不愿意换手机，除了受到疫情引发连锁反应的影响，手机厂商自身也存在突出问题。

Young people are reluctant to change their mobile phones. In addition to being affected by the chain reaction caused by the epidemic, mobile phone manufacturers also have prominent problems.

首先，手机厂商为了讨好用户在设计产品时疯狂“堆料”，特别是芯片技术的突飞猛进，智能手机的整体性能大幅提升，对于绝大多数普通用户来讲，一部手机的性能已经冗余，日常使用两三年不在话下，高端旗舰机“服役”三五年也并不稀奇。

First of all, in order to please users, mobile phone manufacturers are frantically "piling up" materials when designing products, especially the rapid development of chip technology. The overall performance of smart phones has been greatly improved. For the vast majority of ordinary users, the performance of a mobile phone has been redundant. It is not surprising that a high-end flagship has been "in service" for three to five years.

当然，“手机性能冗余”不能称之为一个问题，这对消费者来说算是一个积极影响，但确实让更加务实的消费者认为没有必要更新换代。

Of course, "mobile phone performance redundancy" can not be called a problem, which is a positive impact on consumers, but it does make more pragmatic consumers feel that there is no need to upgrade.

虽然性能冗余了，但是新机创新明显乏力。

Although the performance is redundant, the innovation of the new machine is obviously weak.

自从iPhone X之后，主流智能手机的外观再没有出现革命性的改进。iPhone仍在沿用刘海屏之外，安卓厂商都在用屏占比更高的挖孔屏、曲面屏，而真正的全面屏设计“屏下摄像头”目前还远非主流。

Since the iPhone x, there has been no revolutionary improvement in the appearance of mainstream smartphones. The iPhone is still using the banged screen. Android manufacturers are using the hole digging screen and curved screen, which account for a higher proportion of the screen. However, the real comprehensive screen design "off screen camera" is far from the mainstream at present.

当屏占比没的讲了，手机厂商们又开始忙着发明“颜色”，比如iPhone的远峰蓝，小米的原野绿，vivo的百里丹霞，荣耀的墨玉青，OPPO的逍遥青等等，快赶上口红色号的复杂程度了。结果呢，颜色对于经常更换手机壳的用户来说毫无用处。

When the proportion of screens is gone, mobile phone manufacturers are busy inventing "colors", such as the far peak blue of iPhone, the wild green of millet, the hundred mile Danxia of vivo, the glorious Dark Jade Green, the carefree green of oppo, and so on. They are about to catch up with the complexity of the red number. As a result, the color is useless for users who often change the case.

此外在配置上，各家手机厂商动辄拼快充，你100瓦我就120瓦；摄像头越来越多，像素越来越高，甚至上亿。却都是一些无效“内卷”，大多数用户感知并不强烈。

In addition, in terms of configuration, various mobile phone manufacturers are prone to fight for fast charging. If you are 100 watts, I will be 120 watts; More and more cameras, higher and higher pixels, even hundreds of millions. However, they are all invalid "inner volumes", which are not strongly perceived by most users.

 

而在消费者能够感知到的软件上，却没有什么进步，比如5G手机虽然已经成为主流，但至今没有出现与之相匹配的软件应用，甚至不少用户为了降低功耗而关闭5G功能。

However, there is no progress in the software that consumers can perceive. For example, although 5G mobile phones have become the mainstream, no matching software applications have emerged so far. Many users even turn off 5G functions in order to reduce power consumption.

总之，现在的智能手机愈发平庸，挤牙膏式的升级换代令消费者缺乏新鲜感，遑论让人惊叹的“黑科技”了。

In short, today's smart phones are becoming more and more mediocre. The toothpaste squeeze upgrade makes consumers lack of freshness, let alone the amazing "black technology".

另一个劝退让年轻人换机的问题，是手机的价格不断走高。

2017年以来，也就是中国智能手机市场出货量开始走下坡路时，手机厂商们眼看“薄利多销”行不通了，开始打起了“溢价”的主意，纷纷进军高端化。特别是华为受制裁以后，小米、OPPO、vivo抢占高端手机市场的野心一个比一个大。

Another problem in persuading young people to change their phones is that the price of mobile phones is rising.

 

Since 2017, when the shipment volume of China's smart phone market began to decline, mobile phone manufacturers saw that "small profits but quick turnover" was no longer feasible, and began to play the idea of "premium" and entered the high-end market one after another. In particular, after Huawei was sanctioned, Xiaomi, oppo and vivo became more and more ambitious to seize the high-end mobile phone market.

对消费者来说，手机厂商进军高端市场最显著的一个变化就是，旗舰机的零售价格提高了。再加上近年来手机供应链的紧张，芯片等零部件涨价，导致手机成本上升，手机厂商不得不加价销售。

For consumers, the most significant change for mobile phone manufacturers to enter the high-end market is that the retail price of flagship phones has increased. In addition, in recent years, due to the tense supply chain of mobile phones, the prices of chips and other components have increased, which has led to the rise of mobile phone costs, and mobile phone manufacturers have to increase prices for sales.

根据《Canalys 2021年度智能手机市场分析报告》，2021年智能手机平均售价同比上涨10%；而Counterpoint的数据显示，中国市场手机的平均售价已经从过去的1500元至2000元增长至2700元至3000元的价位段。

According to canalys' 2021 smart phone market analysis report, the average selling price of smart phones in 2021 increased by 10% year-on-year; According to the data of counterpoint, the average selling price of mobile phones in the Chinese market has increased from 1500 yuan to 2000 yuan to 2700 yuan to 3000 yuan.

小米财报显示，今年一季度小米手机平均手机为1188.5元，创历史新高，比2018年同期高出了45%，部分原因就是高端手机销量增加拉高平均手机价格。

According to Xiaomi's financial report, the average mobile phone price of Xiaomi's mobile phone in the first quarter of this year was 1188.5 yuan, a record high, 45% higher than that in the same period of 2018, partly because the increase in high-end mobile phone sales pushed up the average mobile phone price.

自从2019年三星、华为相继发布折叠屏手机以来，除了苹果，小米、OPPO、荣耀和vivo等全球主流手机厂商皆已推出折叠屏产品。

Since Samsung and Huawei successively released folding screen mobile phones in 2019, in addition to apple, mainstream mobile phone manufacturers in the world such as Xiaomi, oppo, glory and vivo have launched folding screen products.

国际数据公司（IDC）报告显示，2021年全球折叠屏手机的出货量约710万部，在全球智能手机中占比约0.5%。其中，中国市场的折叠屏手机出货量约为150万部，在国内智能手机市场中占比不到0.5%，其中华为拿下近“半壁江山”，三星占据28.8%的市场份额。

International Data Corporation (IDC) reported that in 2021, the global shipments of folding screen mobile phones were about 7.1 million, accounting for about 0.5% of the global smart phones. Among them, the shipment volume of folding screen mobile phones in the Chinese market is about 1.5 million, accounting for less than 0.5% of the domestic smart phone market, of which Huawei takes nearly "half of the country", and Samsung takes 28.8% of the market share

也就是说，折叠屏手机看上去是一个巨大的蓝海。vivo执行副总裁胡柏山认为，折叠屏是未来2-3年智能机手机市场细分的增量市场，且增速会非常快，预计未来几年将有10倍量级的增长。荣耀CEO赵明的预测更加乐观，他认为今年折叠屏手机市场便能实现10倍量级的增长。

In other words, the folding screen mobile phone looks like a huge blue ocean. Hubaishan, executive vice president of vivo, believes that the folding screen is an incremental market for smartphone market segmentation in the next 2-3 years, and the growth rate will be very fast. It is expected that there will be a 10 fold growth in the next few years. Zhaoming, CEO of glory, is more optimistic. He believes that the folding screen mobile phone market will achieve a 10 fold growth this year.

尽管手机厂商们信心满满，但折叠屏市场的潜力尚不明朗，况且高昂的价格仍是折叠屏手机走量的一座大山。如果折叠屏手机实在拉不动年轻人消费，进军海外市场则是手机厂商们应对中国手机市场不景气的另一手准备。

Although the mobile phone manufacturers are full of confidence, the potential of the folding screen market is not clear, and the high price is still a big mountain in the volume of folding screen mobile phones. If folding screen mobile phones can't motivate young people to consume, entering the overseas market is another preparation for mobile phone manufacturers to cope with the depression of China's mobile phone market.

中国信通院数据显示，今年一季度，国内5G手机渗透率达77.7%，而IDC数据称全球5G手机渗透率仅有五成左右。这意味着，海外市场还有更大的争夺空间。

According to the data of China Academy of information technology, in the first quarter of this year, the penetration rate of 5g mobile phones in China reached 77.7%, while IDC data said that the global penetration rate of 5g mobile phones was only about 50%. This means that there is still more room for competition in overseas markets.

小米不满足常年制霸印度市场，早已经在欧洲和拉美市场发力，目前成绩不俗。因此，今年一季度，虽然小米出货量在中国市场只能排第五，但在全球仅次于三星和苹果。

Xiaomi is not satisfied with dominating the Indian market all the year round. It has already made great efforts in the European and Latin American markets, and has achieved good results at present. Therefore, in the first quarter of this year, although Xiaomi's shipment volume can only rank fifth in the Chinese market, it is second only to Samsung and apple in the world.

刚在中国市场刚站稳脚跟的荣耀，5月初宣布全面启动海外市场销售。荣耀方面此前向《豹变》表示，会聚焦20个左右的核心国家，覆盖欧洲、中东、亚太和拉美等地区。

In early May, the company announced the full launch of overseas sales. In terms of honor, it previously told leopard change that it would focus on about 20 core countries, covering Europe, the Middle East, the Asia Pacific and Latin America.

今年年初，vivo创始人沈炜在看到疫情影响全球经济低迷、手机行业竞争激烈、用户需求与时俱进，称“2022年将是智能手机行业最具挑战的一年”，其实未必，如果疫情影响持续存在且手机厂商依然缺乏革命性的创新，2022年可能只是行业滑坡的一个片段而已。

At the beginning of this year, Shenwei, the founder of vivo, said that "2022 will be the most challenging year for the smart phone industry" when he saw the impact of the epidemic on the global economic downturn, fierce competition in the mobile phone industry and user demand keeping pace with the times. In fact, it may not be. If the epidemic continues and mobile phone manufacturers still lack revolutionary innovation, 2022 may be just a fragment of the industry decline.